meeting_labour_demand_in_agriculture_in_times_of_cov

Figure 9. Estimated probabilities to move to agriculture, by personal characteristics

Source: own elaboration of EU LFS microdata. 2009-2018

To be sure, the transition probabilities that we estimate are based on observations LQ ³QRUPaO WLPHV´. TKH SHULRG WKaW ZH KaYH WaNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUaWLRQ ZaV characterized by a severe downturn at the beginning and a quite sustained expansion in the most recent years. It is far from obvious that the past labour market dynamics - even those during the Great Recession - can offer a reliable indication to how economic conditions and people decisions will play out in the current situation, which is unprecedented for a number of factors. For example, early unemployment numbers coming from the US indicate that the number of new unemployed that the shutdown has caused is a multiple of those, already very high, during the Great Recession. Also, early research on the labour market consequences of COVID-19 based on real time survey evidence from the UK, US and Germany (Adams-Prassl et al. 2020) indicates that the professions that are going to be hurt are primarily the low skilled ones. This conjunct evidence could offer some favourable prospects for the occupation of essential positions in agriculture. The pool of unemployed is bound to grow especially if shelter-in-place orders will be prolonged and/or repeated. The unemployed and the specifically low skilled unemployed living in rural areas are exactly those individuals for whom we estimate a relatively higher availability to join the agriculture sector, it is hard to predict though whether these possible natural movements will be sufficient to compensate for the missing foreign seasonal workers.

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